Physiology explainer
Follow glucose and insulin through one day. The diagram and the traces run on the same clock, so every moment shows what the cells are doing and the blood levels that result.
Simulation. Blood values come from a small glucose and insulin model solved minute by minute for a 70 kg adult who eats 50 g, 70 g and 70 g of carbohydrate at 08:00, 13:00 and 19:30. Glucose rises with gut absorption and liver output. It falls with insulin-driven uptake, insulin-independent uptake (mainly the brain) and loss through the kidneys above about 180 mg/dL (10 mmol/L). Insulin secretion follows glucose with a fast first phase, a sustained second phase and a boost from gut hormones, and insulin is cleared from plasma with a half-life of about 5 minutes. The structure follows the Bergman minimal model and the Dalla Man meal model in simplified form.
HbA1c setting. HbA1c is converted to average glucose with the ADAG relation eAG (mg/dL) = 28.7 × HbA1c − 46.7. For type 2, insulin sensitivity is reduced (more as HbA1c rises), early-phase secretion is blunted, and β-cell output is then adjusted until the 24-hour mean glucose equals that average. For type 1, β-cell output is zero and the size of background and mealtime doses is adjusted in the same way. Injected insulin follows a rapid-acting profile that peaks about an hour after the dose.
Diagnostic ranges (ADA). HbA1c below 5.7% is normal, 5.7 to 6.4% is prediabetes, 6.5% or above is diabetes. Fasting glucose of 126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L) or above also indicates diabetes.
Limits.
Sources. Nathan DM et al., Diabetes Care 2008;31:1473 (ADAG, eAG). American Diabetes Association, Standards of Care in Diabetes, Diagnosis and Classification. Bergman RN et al., Am J Physiol 1979;236:E667. Dalla Man C, Rizza RA, Cobelli C, IEEE Trans Biomed Eng 2007;54:1740. DeFronzo RA, Diabetes 2009;58:773. Rorsman P, Ashcroft FM, Physiol Rev 2018;98:117.